So you drafted your team and the season has begun. Hopefully you managed to grab your homer and sleeper picks, and it’d be nice if all of your players were performing well. However, with numerous players struggling early on this year, this is not likely the case. As a result, it is time to start making some trades, and quickly. When looking at the early-season trade, there are two trends that emerge: (1) Buy Low/Sell High and (2) Benefits From Position Scarcity. Let’s look at both situations a little bit more in-depth.
Buy Low: Right now most teams in the league have played four or five games. While it is still a small sample size, it is enough time for owners to begin worrying about whether players will bounce back from injury (i.e. Gilbert Arenas), coming off a contract year (Mo Williams) or simply struggling (Kirk Heinrich). Granted, I think it is pretty safe to assume that most of these players will have value similar to what they did last year, but right now there is the window of opportunity to go shopping and obtain these players for a good value. Granted, most intelligent fantasy managers won’t give up on their early-round picks very quickly, but if the player continues to struggle for another few weeks, then it may be much easier to pry them away.
Sell High: On the other side of the same coin, we see that there are players who are playing great basketball right now. Some are simply overachieving (Richard Jefferson, Jamaal Crawford) while others are benefiting from team injuries (Chris Kaman, John Salmons). If you are lucky enough to own some players who are currently starting on a very fast pace, you may be able to flip them for a more proven commodity. This is especially effective in the 2-for-2 player trade, as opposing managers may not immediately think you are trying to scam him with the buy-low, sell-high technique. These players, while I think will have good value this year, are still at the mercy of if their teammates return (such as Elton Brand to the Clippers) or if they fall-out of the rotation (look at Portland’s current roster flux as an example).
Injury Advantage: A third component to the buy-low, sell-high strategy has to come from dealing with injured players, as they can often be bought for much lower value than they are worth. This usefulness of this technique depends on which format you play (note that I play more H2H than Roto), but if you can afford to carry injured players on your roster, you could really end up with some great value. For example, right now I’m sure that whoever owns Mike Bibby is not looking forward to holding onto him for weeks. He’s too valuable to drop, and yet it is very hard to win without having a player for weeks on end. What I like to do is wait, once the player gets injured, for a few weeks; this achieves two things: (1) the owner becomes increasingly frustrated and (2) the player is closer to returning. I then try to sell low and obtain the player. As the season progresses there will be several of these opportunities, so watch for these chances to poach.
Benefits From Position Scarcity: Unfortunately I wasn’t able to share this advice before everyone drafted, but here is something to consider. Most leagues require you to start two centers, and yet the talent pool for centers is extremely shallow, especially once injuries around the league start to pile up. However, if you find yourself with an excess of talent at the PG or C position, you can leverage these to upgrade to better players. I cannot tell you how many times I have been in a live draft and notice a few of the teams auto-drafting. Sure enough, I try and make sure that I stock up on centers, as often managers will realize once the draft is over that they only have two players to put in the position, leaving no one to rotate in. Seeing as I have maybe 5+ center-eligible big men, I can afford to give up one or two if I get superior talent (a mid-round swing-man) in return. Granted, this might not help you right now, so try to remember it for the next time you draft. Take a look at both your roster and those of other people in the league to identify managers you could use this technique to trade with.
A Real Example: My basis for these thoughts come from a year ago, where I swindled multiple intelligent fantasy managers in my league. After the draft, one manager only had two center eligible players, and they were not good (one was Tony Battie I believe). I ended up trading the over-performing Zaza Pachulia and Larry Hughes for the under-performing Luol Deng and David West. Granted, that trade looks completely lopsided, and it was, but between being stressed with not having enough centers and seeing his players struggle and mine over-perform, he bit and took the trade. I then was able to swap Deng for an injured Josh Howard. Of course, Howard took the leap last year due to his three-point shooting, something he first demonstrated proficiency for during the 2006 playoffs. In the end, I won this league easily, by adhering to some of the techniques stressed above. You might not find deals quite like this, but using injuries, position scarcity, and over/under performing players to your advantage, you may find yourself in a very good position at the mere beginning of the season.
